Somalilanders Should Choose their Next Leader Wisely

In 2010 Somaliland people around the globe were jubilant about the changes coming to the country. The election of President Siilaanyo brought hope to the rebirth of a nation that economically stagnant with zero development and politically immobile.  

Seven years forward, in 2017, we are on the verge of electing a new leader to take the helm to lead a nation that has been transformed with visible economic development, vibrant private business and stronger national institutions. 

National annual budget has grown from meager $40 million to whopping $366 million. Civil servants’ salary tripled in some instance with room to grow, making some employees plan for their future careers in government agencies. 

Countless expatriates came back to the country where the members of Diaspora flooded in to the main cities to live, work and start business, halting the imbalance brain drain and injecting needed skills in the labor market while introducing new cultural norms to society.

You could feel the changes in the wind. But also, sadly, youth unemployment, corruption, and tribalism overshadowed any progress made during this time.

The new government struggled to deal with youth unemployment, mainly because of inadequate skills to compete in the emerging markets of technology, booming financial sectors and number of factors looking for skilled labor. Part of the problem is under-education and lack of national vision to invest the future generations.

The Government has also miserably failed to safe guard the national resources, where some kitchen cabinet members and their allies enriched themselves, looting the country openly and without challenges.

In the meantime, a deadly blinding tribalism swept the landscape, dividing people to see their common interest and disappointingly became part of the daily life. This is the darkest spot for the legacy of the outgoing administration.  

To be successful in politics, those that run the presidential palace have mistakenly thought bringing back the old mantra of divide and rule would enhance their power. Unfortunately this has destroyed the fabric that binds the nation together. Recovering from it would take time and resilience.

The extreme critics of the current administration more often blame President Siilaanyo and his henchmen about the decline of national cohesion, but in reality other leaders addicted to government handout, personal interest based on what can I gain today contributed to the demise of weakening the strong nationalism that we have come to depend on the trying times. 

In addition, Somaliland is suffering from severe drought caused by the unpredictable climate changes. The rural population as well as the livestock, which is the backbone of the economy, is on the edge of famine. No one should be blamed for this natural disaster but the lack of preparation to commit resources and to strengthen relevant government agencies such as Disaster and Emergency Agency, Ministry of Environment & Rural Development and others ahead of time made the situation even more desperate.

Never the less, Somalilanders usually come together to salvage what they can when they are in the brink of disaster, manmade, natural or otherwise.  But the effect of this frequently occurring drought have really touched or damaged the livelihood of millions this time. 

This contradicting story of modest progress and bleak setbacks is actually happening in Somaliland which is the reality on the ground. However, most people are still positive and hopeful about the future of the country. They are only confused by the mixed messaging coming from the competing parties in this transitional period before a new president is elected.

Instead of presenting solid plans to deal with the hardship and reassuring the public about their ability to solve problems, some candidates have resorted to name calling, divisive language and clan tactics that have damaged their credibility. 

So the question electors are juggling with is; who will be the next leader among the three candidates that will have a steady hand to navigate the nation from the challenges facing Somaliland? Who has the courage to stand up external forces and internal enemies of the state? Who is the right person for this job at this time?

Should people elect someone based on his clan and region of origin or based on his ideology and leadership skills? 

In reality society elects its own members. For good or bad, that person is the reflection of that society. Can Somaliland be honest about its clannish, destructive behavior that will lead them to nowhere?

The election of Siilaanyo may have been a rare moment for Somaliland to show that united they can make a difference and they have made some progress. It is not however the only chance for Somalilanders to break from this personal clan politics and pity personal attack. 

They do have the power, if they choose to exercise, to elect the least disruptive leader from the trio based on the economic development, based on their believes of Somaliland and how to defend it from its enemies, internal or external,  and based on strongest leadership with principles that don’t change with the mood of the time. 

No wish-washy power hungry, selfish politicians but rather a leadership that has invested blood and sweat in Somaliland from the beginning up to now.

 Choose wisely!

Magan Ibrahim,

Somaliland/Somalia - The Looming War: From the Boardroom to the Battlefield

 

In the past 25 years Somaliland has proven its commitment to peace, development, national security and most importantly taking an active role in stabilizing the region. Starting in 2012 Somaliland officially entered into talks with Somalia with hopes of solidifying its place in the international community as an independent state.

Up until today, Somaliland is the only honest party in continuing the talks with Somalia hosted by the Turkish Government. Even when Somalia violated all the agreements reached in previous meetings, Somaliland hoped their presence will convince other side to respect their “brother’s” position and honor those agreements.

In 2015, the scheduled meeting between Somaliland and Somalia in Turkey ended abruptly by Somaliland as a direct result of Somalia sending native Somaliland politicians to represent Somalia. Once again, Somalia has not only refused to implement several agreements, but violated the fundamental principle of not including native Somalilanders in their delegate representing Somalia’s interest. This has always been the single most important condition that made Somaliland to participate in the meetings from the beginning.

The stalling tactics has given Mogadishu sometime to formulate another trick to trap Somaliland into this perpetual no good get together. That strategy hinged on buying time until when Somalia is strong enough to muscle Hargeisa.  Its working because Somaliland has recently somehow agreed to meet with the Mogadishu Team in Turkey without precondition, and hoping Somalia will reciprocate if shown a good faith. In the meanwhile Mogadishu is using all diplomatic channels to stop Somaliland develop its economic infrastructure.

Somalia President Hassan Sheikh Mohamoud has recently sent a letter to IGAD members asking them not to cooperate directly with Somaliland. As a consequence, the Berbera Corridor project has been placed on hold and the European Union suspended fund raising activities intended to finance that project. The Washington Post reported.

 “Sometimes the Mogadishu government tries to create problems when it comes to aid and development for Somaliland, even though in the last meeting in Djibouti they agreed to keep development out of politics,” Somaliland’s foreign minister, Saad Ali Shire, said in an interview with the Post.

Simultaneously, with the Turkey’s help, Somalia is building strong institutions such as large intelligence network and robust armed forces including air forces that may be used for the next conflict with Somaliland.  

Somalia has now abandoned the previously accepted crucial recommendation from the international community on accommodating Somaliland as an equal partner to find a lasting solution to resolve the current status quo.

By linking Somaliland with their made up regional governments such as Puntland, and Jubaland, Mogadishu is alienating Somaliland. This is a contradiction to their commitment; to avoid provocation and to have an open and genuine dialogue that calls for compromise in order to interpret the failed union of 1960 to anything else that make sense based on today’s realities on the ground.     

The Somaliland Interior Minister, Ali Mohamed Warancadde has recently declared Somalia to be the “biggest threat” Somaliland is presently facing, while testifying in front of the Permanent Committee of Parliamentary Businesses and Operations. He stated to the committee that Somalia’s strategy of double talk and interference in Somaliland internal affairs created an environment of hostility.

According to analysts in Hargeisa, involving the Parliament, Warancadde’s declaration is precursor for nation’s security apparatus to prepare the members of parliament for a future looming war and to allow more spending in the army from the government’s discretionary budget on top of the estimated $150 million allocated annually for the defense.

Unfortunately, weak institutions and unstable political state caused by power struggle and infighting are making difficult for Mogadishu to adopt the full brunt of this deceitful strategy the Minister has mentioned.

Somalia leaders surely understand, and certainly acknowledge in private their inability to apply pressure on Somaliland and force it to accept their wishes.  If they could, the most critical hawkish politicians in Mogadishu leadership circle would have undoubtedly preferred to act on their daily empty threats in the media. Fortunately for now, they were forced to opt to delay tactics while they regroup.

Instead, the only open venue for Somalia to use now is their seat in international organizations such as the UN, AU, IGAD and the Arab League. Somalia has recently stepped up to use the benefit of these memberships in attempt to viciously affect Somaliland’s development and humanitarian activities. 

Rather than adjust their policy to fit priorities and realities, same misguided Somalia leaders insisted that Somaliland needs to be part of their dream ‘federal’ country.

This phantom idea of federal system has further fractured Somalia proper into more clan fiefdoms. It’s not working for them because it has no agreed formula for current member regions that are from the Italian Somalia. Let alone for Somaliland which is a separate country that has willingly united with Somalia in 1960 and now functions independently.

Somaliland has never been part of the fabrication of the new “Federal Constitution” and has nothing to do with the numerous failed ‘road maps’ that their so called government is currently based on.  In fact, that draft constitution blindly claims Somaliland territories and its people as part of “Somalia”.  Strikingly, this “Federal Constitution” denies the existence of Somaliland while it has specifically acknowledged Puntland as the “…preexisting (and the founding) state member” of the not yet defined future “Federal Republic of Somalia”.

In contrast, in 2001 Somaliland’s reclaim of its independence in a new constitution was endorsed by a referendum overwhelmingly approved by 97% of its own citizens.

“Although no nation officially recognizes it, Somaliland has its own police, army, flag and currency, and for the past 24 years has held regular elections for parliament and a president”, Wrote Washington Post in its latest article about Somaliland.

It’s for above reasons why Somaliland continues to question Somalia’s authenticity regarding any future talks. Somaliland Government previously stated that “…it is important to include additional mediators from the international community”, as Turkey appears to be more sympathetic to Somalia’s plan to conquer Somaliland.

It is obvious that Turkey has taken sides and can’t continue to be an impartial arbitrator in Somalia/Somaliland talks. The lack of empathy for Somaliland historical injustices and pursuing aggressive geopolitical agenda have damaged Turkey’s credibility and has made this powerful Muslim nation unfit to be an honest broker.  

To add insult to the injury, Turkey’s Hargeisa Consulate Office has tried to circumvent the legitimately elected Somaliland Government as the legal representative of the people by reaching out to some clan leaders to make them involve in the dialogue with Somalia.

That is why most international observers agree with Somaliland to change the venue and bring other nations to the talks. It is only fair than to ask Great Britain to re-join the talks. It has the ability, with the help of such other neutral European countries of Denmark, Netherlands, Sweden and Norway, to return the negotiations to the correct path.

After all, it’s the Great Britain that has initially started this derailed talks in 2012 and stressed Somaliland to come to the table, before Somaliland naively agreed Turkey to take over the mediation seat. Therefore, Britain owes to the people of Somaliland to level the plain field.

In the end, if/when neutral actors are found and the negotiations restart, Somaliland must have concrete forward choices: outline clear strategy. This strategy must start with an equal partnership, a transparent agenda, a realistic timeline as agreed upon by all involved parties, which clearly mandates that any failure to comply by either side is tantamount to declaring a war. And continue to pursue all legal channels to force Somalia to comply with its commitments. While at the same time preparing for the inevitable war because as Somalia strength grows so as the bold rhetoric from its politicians.

In 25 years, Somaliland has never expected a reasonable politician to emerge from Somalia’s crowded pool of competing interests, actors and egotistic individuals. Judging the behavior of the selfish politicians now leading Somalia’s chaotic agenda, it is very clear that they will not be satisfied with solving issues in the boardrooms but will rather settle the “Union Matter” in the battlefields. Now more than ever, Somaliland politicians need to get ready for the impending aggression and implement deterrent policies.

By Magan Ibrahim, Ohio, USA

Roda Daud Alberta, Canada